What was your judgment worth?
The rule ran on its own over the same days as the trader's fills. Every difference between the two, a trade skipped, one left early, one the rule never gave, has a dollar figure. This is that page.
This trader does not exist. The fills were built from four written habits laid over the rule's own trades, so the audit's arithmetic could be checked against a known answer before a real person's fills went through it (Corpus, AUDIT 02). Every number on this page is what the audit printed; the four habits are the reasons in the table further down.
The year, in one line
| what happened | trades | the rule made | the trader made | worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taken as the rule gave it | 19 | $34,725 | $34,725 | +$0 |
| Skipped | 11 | $9,714 | $0 | -$9,714 |
| Taken, left somewhere else | 12 | -$23,795 | -$16,125 | +$7,670 |
| Traded when the rule gave nothing | 39 | $0 | $4,231 | +$4,231 |
| The year | $20,644 | $22,831 | +$2,187 |
Over Sep 2025 to Aug 2026 the rule on its own made $20,644 in 42 trades. A made-up trader took 19 of them as given, skipped 11, took 12 and left them early, and made 39 trades the rule never gave. Put together, the choices were worth +$2,187: a made-up trader made $22,831.
The skipped trades would have made $9,714, so skipping cost the trader $9,714.
The trades left early: the rule made -$23,795 on them, the trader -$16,125, so leaving early was worth +$7,670.
The 39 trades outside the rule made +$4,231.
Every trade, 81 rows: the rule's 42 and the trader's 39 outside it
| day | side | in | out | the rule | the trader | what happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-02 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,016 | $2,016 | taken |
| 2025-09-03 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$19 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-09-05 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,886 | skipped | |
| 2025-09-10 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $481 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-09-17 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,129 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-09-24 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$959 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-01 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,636 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-08 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $2,476 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-15 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $2,376 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-22 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$39 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-29 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $391 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-10-30 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$824 | -$774 | out at 09:30 |
| 2025-11-05 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,701 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-11-06 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$4,739 | -$2,404 | out at 09:54 |
| 2025-11-12 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$3,014 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-11-13 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$564 | -$409 | out at 09:30 |
| 2025-11-17 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,766 | $2,766 | taken |
| 2025-11-19 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $7,401 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-11-26 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,449 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-12-03 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $141 | $141 | taken |
| 2025-12-10 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$279 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-12-17 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$2,279 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-12-18 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,781 | skipped | |
| 2025-12-24 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $591 | not the rule's | |
| 2025-12-31 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,474 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-01-07 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,161 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-01-14 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,159 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-01-21 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$2,559 | -$1,734 | out at 09:52 |
| 2026-01-28 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$344 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-02-04 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,674 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-02-11 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $5,311 | skipped | |
| 2026-02-16 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $81 | $81 | taken |
| 2026-02-18 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $5,421 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-02-20 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $4,556 | $4,556 | taken |
| 2026-02-25 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,851 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-03-04 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,171 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-03-06 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,031 | skipped | |
| 2026-03-11 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$89 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-03-17 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$719 | -$1,174 | out at 09:32 |
| 2026-03-18 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$579 | -$579 | taken |
| 2026-03-19 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,401 | $1,401 | taken |
| 2026-03-23 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$2,554 | skipped | |
| 2026-03-24 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$1,219 | -$914 | out at 09:39 |
| 2026-03-25 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$89 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-04-01 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,231 | $1,231 | taken |
| 2026-04-08 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$2,064 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-04-13 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$1,319 | skipped | |
| 2026-04-15 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,551 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-04-17 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$1,384 | -$824 | out at 09:51 |
| 2026-04-22 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,466 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-04-29 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,151 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-05-06 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,621 | $1,621 | taken |
| 2026-05-13 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,654 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-05-18 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,106 | skipped | |
| 2026-05-20 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $446 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-05-27 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$2,679 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-05-28 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$2,484 | -$1,719 | out at 10:12 |
| 2026-06-01 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $461 | $461 | taken |
| 2026-06-03 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$1,499 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-06-08 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,426 | skipped | |
| 2026-06-10 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$5,779 | skipped | |
| 2026-06-11 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,021 | $2,021 | taken |
| 2026-06-12 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $636 | $636 | taken |
| 2026-06-16 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $171 | $171 | taken |
| 2026-06-17 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$449 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-06-18 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,151 | $1,151 | taken |
| 2026-06-23 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $5,411 | $5,411 | taken |
| 2026-06-24 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$1,194 | -$1,169 | out at 09:30 |
| 2026-07-01 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,581 | $1,581 | taken |
| 2026-07-08 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$1,389 | -$1,009 | out at 09:30 |
| 2026-07-14 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $2,956 | skipped | |
| 2026-07-15 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$3,184 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-07-17 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $4,071 | $4,071 | taken |
| 2026-07-22 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $1,676 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-07-23 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $566 | $566 | taken |
| 2026-07-24 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$2,444 | -$1,229 | out at 09:42 |
| 2026-07-29 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | -$4,134 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-07-30 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | -$4,274 | -$2,764 | out at 09:45 |
| 2026-08-05 | Long | 09:31 | 10:15 | $951 | not the rule's | |
| 2026-08-06 | Long | 09:30 | 10:14 | $5,426 | $5,426 | taken |
| 2026-08-12 | Short | 09:30 | 10:14 | $1,871 | skipped |
By the reason given
For this sample the reasons are the four habits the trader was built with. Each skipped, cut or added trade carries the trader's own word for why; the dollars roll up by that word.
| the reason | trades | worth |
|---|---|---|
| cut at half | 12 | +$7,670 |
| wednesday long | 39 | +$4,231 |
| monday short | 4 | +$342 |
| news day | 7 | -$10,056 |
| All of them | 62 | +$2,187 |
The rule's own trades are the yardstick, so "worth" is the trader's result minus what the rule did on the same trade: a skipped winner is a cost, a skipped loser a saving, a cut that lost less than the rule a gain.
What to do
Three things the numbers say, and nothing they do not.
Keep or stop. A reason that paid on three trades or more is kept; one that cost is stopped; fewer than three is too few to say. This is about the trader's year, not the market: it says what each habit was worth on these trades.
| the reason | trades | worth | per trade | keep or stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cut at half | 12 | +$7,670 | +$639 a trade | keep |
| wednesday long | 39 | +$4,231 | +$108 a trade | keep |
| monday short | 4 | +$342 | +$85 a trade | keep |
| news day | 7 | -$10,056 | -$1,437 a trade | stop |
Worth testing as a rule. One habit is worth a rule test: cut at half, +$7,670 on 12 trades. It is a habit the trader applied to the rule's own trades and it paid this year on a handful of trades. Whether it holds up is a question about the market, not about the trader, and the engine can run it on eighteen years, the same test as every rule on this site, published either way.
The taken trades. The 19 trades taken as the rule gave them came out the same as the rule to the dollar, so entries and exits are not costing anything: whatever is being lost or made is in the choices, not the execution.
On a real record the reasons are the trader's own words, and this section reads them the same way.
How it is read
The morning move: the price at 8:00 against the 9:30 close; a move of 0.4% or more is faded at the next open and closed at 10:15, one trade a day, no stop but the clock. The rule side is the shelf's own record for NQ (its page on the shelf), rerun with the engine's modules and checked against it trade for trade; in this window it took 42 trades.
The trader side is a fills file, five columns: date, time, side, quantity, price, the columns every broker export carries. A trade counts as taken when the entry is within two minutes and two ticks of the rule's and the exit is too; left early when the exit is somewhere else; skipped when the day has no entry; outside the rule when the trader was in on a day the rule gave nothing, or in again after the rule's one trade. Costs are the rule's: one tick each way and $4.20 a round trip, on both sides.
What this does not see: size (every fill is read as one contract), a trade in another market, or why. The why is the trader's, one word per trade, and it is what the last table is made of.
Raw market data: FirstRate Data (firstratedata.com). A measurement of one person's fills against one written rule; not advice.