Does opening range breakout work on NQ? Eighteen years, tested

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THINRIDGE ENGINE REPORT  -  SCORED UNDER PROTOCOL v1.1
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SCOPE: Scored under Protocol v1.1 on FirstRate 1-min unadjusted via Thinridge engine. Intake testimony: NOT received (rule tested as locked). Contamination map sworn: no (seen era as declared or by archive date). Human review of reconciliation residue: NO.

1. THE RULE AS LOCKED
   family      : C - Opening range breakout
   as you locked it:
     Opening range breakout, at the settings the door shows before anyone touches them (SHELF-01 v1.1): range_start 930; range_min 15; last_entry 1130; exit 1530; mode follow; sides Both
     seen era from 2023, the split the six teardowns were scored on
   as the engine read it:
   exit model  : time only
   filter      : none
   lineage     : #1
   bars        : one-minute (every signal, fill and exit is on the one-minute series)
   entries     : one trade a day, the first qualifying signal in the window
   history     : 18.6 years, seen era = 2023 onward (declared by submitter, not sworn)
               : trades dated 2023 or later are the seen era; trades before 2023 are the unseen era, and the unseen era decides the verdict

2. VERDICT
   SCORE   : 28 / 100
   VERDICT : REJECTED
   GATES   : G7 era-manufactured edge (expectancy sign)
   CRATERS : pillar(s) below 50%: II, III, IV, V
   Pillars : I=5  II=0  III=0  IV=4  V=4  VI=15

3. RESULT
   Trades 4708   Net $33,611.40   Per trade $7.14
   Seen era (2023+): 925 trades, $53,590.00
   Unseen era    : 3783 trades, -$19,978.60
   Win rate 49.7%  (2340 of 4708 trades closed above zero after costs)
   Exits by type: time 4708

4. THE NULL (random-side twins, 5000 seeds)
   Full window  p = 0.2314  (1157 / 5000)
   Unseen era   p = 0.3432  (1716 / 5000)   <- governs
   Lineage-adjusted p (variant #1) = 0.3432

5. ERA CONSISTENCY (unseen calendar years as windows)
   Years 15   profitable 5   WF efficiency (PF unseen/seen) 0.94
   By year (unseen): 2008 $8,511.40  2009 -$8,884.20  2010 -$7,757.60  2011 -$5,055.00  2012 -$1,668.20  2013 -$5,053.40  2014 $2,516.60  2015 -$16,822.60  2016 -$10,248.40  2017 -$16,605.80  2018 -$1,991.80  2019 $6,407.60  2020 -$50,971.00  2021 $35,684.00  2022 $51,959.80

6. COST STRESS (re-simulated)
   1 tick $33,611.40   2 ticks -$13,468.60   3 ticks -$60,548.60
   Net/gross at 1 tick 33.5%   PF at 2x friction 0.99   Breakeven 1.7 ticks/side

7. FRAGILITY (bootstrap x5000)
   Full   CI -$237,583.60 .. $304,996.40   P(net>0) 0.5800
   Unseen CI -$182,298.60 .. $146,356.40   P(net>0) 0.4128
   DD95/actual 1.39x   Top trade 93.9%   Top-5 242.5%

8. SENSITIVITY (+-10% on primary trigger)
   Plateau retention 124%   Sign flip no   Parameters 4

9. LIVABILITY (no points; could a person have held this?)
   Longest stretch without a new equity high: 185 months (ending 2024-06)
   Rolling 12-month windows negative: 61% of 213   Worst 12 months: -$65,801.00 (ending 2021-02)
   Max drawdown $149,706.00   Median year -$1,751.00   Years of median to recoup the drawdown: n/a (median year not positive)
   Share of all profit from the best two years: 261%

10. CODE OFFER
   [ ] validated
   [ ] unseen_p_adj_le_0.05
   [ ] unseen_ci_excludes_zero
   [ ] breakeven_ge_4_ticks
   [ ] top_trade_le_25pct
   => not offered at this result.

11. SCORING LINES
   II: Sharpe retention -0.24 (per-trade) -> 0; absolute OOS -> 0
   III: windows profitable 0.33 -> 0; efficiency 0.94 -> 0; window concentration -> 0
   IV: null p 0.3432 (5000 seeds) -> 0; DD95/BT 1.39 -> 4; top trade 0.939 -> 0
   V: retention@1x 0.335 -> 4; PF@2x 0.99 -> 0
   VI: plateau 1.24 -> 8; parsimony 4 -> 4; sign flip False -> 3

12. THE AUTOPSY (where the money came from and went; the rule as it ran, no new try)
   Exits: time 4708, $33,611.40
   On the books, unseen era (net -$19,978.60): 10:00 -$52,087.80  11:00 -$50,938.20  12:00 -$10,073.60  13:00 -$16,678.60  14:00 -$18,813.60  15:00 $246.40
   Eras: unseen -$19,978.60, seen $53,590.00; largest unseen year 2022 = n/a of the unseen net
   Plateau: 124% retained on a 10% nudge; sign flip no
   Drought: 185 months without a new high (ending 2024-06); median year -$1,751.00; years of median to recoup n/a

   The era is the rule: the seen years carry all of $33,611.40; the unseen years made -$19,978.60. Longest wait for a new equity high: 185 months, median year -$1,751.00.
   No next run is pointed at: no change fixes an era; the rule as written is the seen years' rule.

13. IF YOU TRADE THIS BY EYE
   Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (1716 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the unseen years); whatever you do on top of the written steps is where any edge is, and your fills are how to find out which part.
   Everything this rule made, it made in the years you learned it in; the fifteen before them say the written rule is a coin, and whatever you do on top of it is where any edge is.
   That is what the record says about the rule as written. It is not what next year says.

WHAT THIS CANNOT TELL YOU: the score assumes this rule walked in
once (see lineage) and that your development did not touch the
unseen era. Neither was sworn. A Thinridge audit exists to take
that testimony. Not investment advice. No guarantee of future
results. Statistical analysis of a mechanical rule as submitted.
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