TTHINRIDGE Your reports What passed Test a setup

Is your trading rule real, or luck?

Send it the way it was taught to you. It is read back to you line by line, run on eighteen years of one-minute futures data, and published either way. Of the 21 setups everyone teaches, run the same way, 1 passed.

Send your rule, freeTest it on the form, $49

Before every run we write down what we expect it to show, and after it we publish how we did, misses included. The record of our predictions →

Passed
TR-26-0003 · lineage #1

Premarket reversion

NQ · measured from 8:00 · decided at 9:30 · fade a 0.40% move · out at 10:15 · every weekday.

0809101112131415161718192021222023-26
Trades709
Test-years net$63,693
Coin flips ahead15 / 5,000
Score90
Longest wait for a new high: 46 months. That number is why the Shelf exists.Size it →

Send your rule. The first one is free.

  1. Write it the way you would tell a friend: the market, when you get in, when you get out, where the stop goes.
  2. It comes back to you line by line, with every question the words leave open. Nothing runs until you say the lines are right.
  3. It runs on eighteen years of one-minute data, costs paid on every trade, against 5,000 coin flips (the same trades with the direction picked at random).
  4. The page goes up either way, the setup named and you not. If it passes, you get the code.

If your rule is not a kind the form knows, that is fine: a person builds what it needs. A new kind of rule takes about a week, and you hear every question in writing before anything runs.

This opens your own email with the rule in it, addressed to audits@thinridge.io; nothing is stored on this site. One free run per person; the next ones are $49 on the form.

The one that passed

The morning move

Measure the move from the 8:00 AM price to 9:30. If it is 0.4% or more, trade against it at 9:30 and get out at 10:15. One trade a day, every day, no stop but the clock.

Passed on ES, NQ, YM and RTY. The same rule, the same settings, on every market below; the four index futures move together, so this is one bet on four screens, not four bets.

E-mini S&P 500Passed

ES

545 trades · net $45,674 · coin flips 12 / 5,000 · 55 months without a new high

89 /100

room for one contract $18,316

E-mini Nasdaq-100Passed

NQ

709 trades · net $113,297 · coin flips 15 / 5,000 · 46 months without a new high

90 /100

room for one contract $32,992

E-mini DowPassed

YM

475 trades · net $28,340 · coin flips 37 / 5,000 · 61 months without a new high

89 /100

room for one contract $15,145

E-mini Russell 2000Passed

RTY

789 trades · net $39,551 · coin flips 4 / 5,000 · 36 months without a new high

92 /100

room for one contract $14,397

Rules readers sent in

Sent by a trader as words, read back to him line by line, run, and published with the setup named and the trader not. The part a machine cannot see is said on the page.

TR-26-0008 · ES and NQFailed

Two tests at the VWAP band

A reader's rule as he wrote it, on the default hours. 2,557 trades in 2 records; 4,945, 4,934 of 5,000 coin flips did as well or better on the years it never saw.

NQ 9 · ES 9 /100
TR-26-0009 · ES and GoldFailed

The same rule, on his hours

Run again on the sessions he trades and his own close rule. 2,734 trades in 4 records; 3,649, 3,232, 2,668, 1,370 of 5,000 coin flips did as well or better on the years it never saw.

ES am 9 · ES pm 9 · Gold am 9 · Gold pm 9 /100

Everything else, tested the same way

8 close, 112 failed, 2 that never traded. Click a cell for its record; every one is published either way.

SetupESNQYMRTYGCCL
The morning move89Passed90Passed89Passed92Passed13Failed13Failed
Last week's high or low11Failed47Close21Failed9Failed11Failed11Failed
Opening range breakout13Failed28Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed
Yesterday's high or low30Failed56Close16Failed39Failed35Failed14Failed
The overnight gap13Failed48Close13Failed52Close13Failed13Failed
Moving-average cross11Failed11Failed22Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed
Distance from VWAP16Failed11Failed12Failed13Failed11Failed11Failed
Channel (Keltner / Bollinger)11Failed11Failed11Failed14Failed11Failed11Failed
RSI extremes11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed
MACD cross11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed
Stochastic9Failed9Failed9Failed9Failed9Failed9Failed
Donchian breakout13Failed50Close24Failed13Failed13Failed15Failed
Supertrend flip11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed
Floor pivots21Failed51Close16Failed13Failed31Failed15Failed
Inside-bar breakout13Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed
Time of day13Failed9Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed13Failed
Fair-value gap (Silver Bullet)13Failed13Failed30Failed28Failed65CloseNo trades
Opening-range retest11Failed29Failed11Failed14Failed14Failed11Failed
VWAP reclaim11Failed26Failed14Failed11Failed14Failed11Failed
Swept-level fair-value gap (Silver Bullet, five steps)11Failed11Failed12Failed60Close11FailedNo trades
RSI 30 cross11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed11Failed

Tested September 15, 2026. Failed means the setup as taught did no better than a coin on the years nobody tuned on; close means it beat the coin and not by enough to live on. Raw market data: FirstRate Data.

What you can get here

$49

The Verdict

One rule, read back and tested tonight. Either way.

free

The Shelf

The rules that passed, with the size and the dry spell.

soon

The Ledger

Is it a dry spell or is it dead. Every month, for the rule you hold.

$499

The Audit

Your fills against your rule: which instincts are worth money.

The verdicts

Famous setups, each one run on its own and written up in full. Click one.

All runs
TR-26-0001 · ESFailed

Bullish engulfing candle

As taught in every book. 2,853 trades over 16 years, -$58k. 25 of 25 settings negative.

— from the page; no engine record
TR-26-0002 · NQFailed

Opening range breakout

4,708 trades, +$34k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (1716 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the unseen years); whatever you do on top of the written step…

28 /100
TR-26-0003 · NQPassed

Premarket reversion

709 trades, +$113k over 18.6 years. It is real and it is slow: 46 months without a new high is in the record, so size to the drought, not to the win.

90 /100
TR-26-0004 · NQFailed

Keltner channel fade

4,801 trades, -$203k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (3160 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the unseen years); whatever you do on top of the written step…

11 /100
TR-26-0005 · NQPassed

Opening range breakout, Fridays

925 trades, +$142k over 18.6 years. Patience past noon is where this rule's money has lived; before noon it paid costs for nothing.

85 /100
TR-26-0006 · NQFailed

ICT silver bullet

2,372 trades, -$22k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (4628 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the unseen years); whatever you do on top of the written step…

13 /100
TR-26-0007 · ESFailed

Failed breakdown

1,362 trades, -$81k over 18.6 years. The level did not hold: 75% of trades ended at the stop, which sits where the setup says price should not go; the setup's premise failed more often th…

11 /100

Next verdict by email

One report a week, the numbers, published either way. The Ledger opens to this list first.

Pricing

One price per thing. No tiers inside a thing.

The Verdict

$49 once
  • One setup, written back to you and locked before it runs
  • Eighteen years, 5,000 coin flips, costs paid
  • Real or luck, where the money was, what to try next
  • The code, once it has earned it
Test a setup, $49

The Audit

$499 once
  • Your real trades against your rule
  • Which of your instincts are worth money
  • NDA first, code after
Request an audit